Lebanon – the cynical view

Yahoo! News – Rice Offers Lebanon U.S. Election Help

I am cautiously optimistic about what is happening in Lebanon, it’s always good to see a populist movement take down an unjust government. However, the cynical side of me wonders if the enthusiasm of the conservative commentators in this country is sincere, or just politically expedient. After all, it would seem on the surface, that this is a democratic revolution.

I suppose the enthusiasm stems from Syria as evildoer du jour.

Condi says, “We will focus very much … on what we can help the Lebanese do. That means support for free and fair elections, that means election observers if necessary, monitoring if necessary.” Will that be a US-style-free-and-fair-election? (I couldn’t resist.)

She also “hinted at the possibility of international security assistance if neighboring Syria withdraws its troops.” I’d be interested to see if this security assistance will come from other Mid-East countries, or from, say, NATO.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier said, “There cannot be any pretexts, any excuses, not to carry it [the withdrawal of Syrian forces] out. It demands the sovereignty of Lebanon, the retreat of foreign troops and (intelligence) services.” [Emphasis mine] Which may be quite telling when we consider the definition of sovereignty that we established in this space the other day.

MTT (Marginal Theory Time):

• After the civil war in Lebanon, there was a tremendous reconstruction project which involved Lebanon taking on massive debts, no doubt foisted upon them Economic Hit Man-style. Presumably, there is a class of folks in Lebanon who benefited greatly from this funding and who are consequently beholden to The Providers of Capital (i.e. foreign investors.)
• Syria may be an easier ‘next target’ than Iran, or perhaps it’s just necessary to contain Syria considering their strategic alliance with Iran. Either way, having troops (I mean security forces) in Lebanon and Iraq would contain Syria pretty well.

So..

• Intelligence agents enter Lebanon to organize opposition (or, at least, take advantage of existing opposition) to the Syrian presence; and, gain influence by leveraging Providers’ of Capital influence over key Lebanese figures.
• Said intelligence agents assassinate former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and the opposition blames Syria to fuel the movement. (I am not the first to speculate about this. It is also being said that the attack amounts to political suicide for Syria if they foolishly did it.)
• There is resulting diplomatic pressure from the Western world on Syria to get out.
• The Lebanese government resigns, and Syrian troops have little choice but to leave. There is a massive power void to be filled.
• By assisting with “elections” and providing “security forces,” Lebanese “sovereignty” is achieved.

I hope that this movement in Lebanon is just as it appears on the surface: a populist democratic victory. However, there is a pattern of behavior that repeats itself throughout the history of the American Empire, which at the moment stands to benefit from this situation.

More reading from Indymedia, Beirut:
indymedia beirut | Hariri: Hot Diary of an Affair! | 21.02.2005 20:44